Understand economic power before it becomes consensus
Reports, memos, essays, and data on the forces reshaping markets, policy, and technology.
Selected work
All publications Research worth starting with
ESSAY · CAPITAL MARKETS
The Arsenal as Portfolio
Prime contractors are acquiring options on the future industrial base with a rounding error of capital, and the sequence rather than the sum is what should concern policymakers.
ESSAY · STRATEGIC COMPETITION
The AI Arms Race Is Becoming a Contest for Industrial Power
The real question is which company can turn capital expenditure into a self-reinforcing system of lower computing costs, stronger models, broader distribution, higher utilization, and recurring revenue.
REPORT · STRATEGIC COMPETITION
The Arithmetic of Power
Winning, Losing, and Competing in the 21st Century
Featured report
The Power Curve 2026 Outlook
2026 is the year of capability concentration, institutional drift, and the multi-pole order.
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The IndexUpdated — feed last checked
Explore the Index The advanced intelligence layer
Featured indicatorWorld Trade Intensity
68.5%up +11.8
Source: World Bank WDI · data through 2025| Indicator | Latest | Change | Data through | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US GDP Growth | +2.2% | down -0.6 | 2025 | |
| US Government Effectiveness | 1.44 | up +0.02 | 2023 | |
| World Trade Intensity | 68.5% | up +11.8 | 2025 | |
| US Political Stability | 0.14 | up +0.05 | 2023 |
World Bank WDI · data through 2025Explore the full index
Research themes
View all themes We explore fields that shape economic power
- 01Advanced TechnologyCompute, chips, AI, and frontier capacity.
- 02Capital MarketsLiquidity, risk, allocation, and leverage.
- 03Cities and InfrastructureHousing, transport, energy, and innovation.
- 04Risk and ResilienceShocks, bottlenecks, redundancy, and exposure.
- 05State CapacityPermitting, procurement, delivery, and trust.
- 06Strategic CompetitionPower, standards, supply chains, and deterrence.