Understand economic power before it becomes consensus
Economic intelligence on how markets, institutions, technology, and capital shape power.
Selected work
All publications Selected research
ESSAY · TECHNOLOGY
The Age Gate
Rising liability is pushing governments toward age gates, design restrictions, and a regulatory model that could spread well beyond California.
ESSAY · TRADE
Unwinding Trump's Tariffs
Six exhibits trace the tariff unwind through federal revenue, China’s surplus, trade flows, consumer prices, and capital goods imports.
ESSAY · ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Nvidia's Slow Burn Monopoly
Nvidia's $5 trillion valuation no longer turns on whether AI is real. It turns on how long the company can keep the rents.
Featured report
The Power Curve 2026 Outlook
The 2026 Outlook examines the concentration of productive capability, capital allocation, and strategic competition.
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The IndexFeed last checked
Explore the Index Explore the Power Curve Index
Check each indicator’s source and reference period. The Index includes illustrative model previews.
Featured indicatorWorld Trade Intensity
68.5%up +11.8 ppvs. 2024
Source: World Bank WDI · data through 2025| Indicator | Latest | Change | Data through | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US GDP Growth | +2.2% | down -0.6 ppvs. 2024 | 2025 | |
| US Government Effectiveness | 1.44 | up +0.02 ptsvs. 2022 | 2023 | |
| World Trade Intensity | 68.5% | up +11.8 ppvs. 2024 | 2025 | |
| US Political Stability | 0.14 | up +0.05 ptsvs. 2022 | 2023 |
World Bank WDI · data through 2025Explore the full index
Research themes
View all themes Investigating economic power
- 01Advanced TechnologyCompute, chips, AI, and frontier capacity.
- 02Capital MarketsLiquidity, risk, allocation, and leverage.
- 03Cities and InfrastructureHousing, transport, energy, and innovation.
- 04Risk and ResilienceShocks, bottlenecks, redundancy, and exposure.
- 05State CapacityPermitting, procurement, delivery, and trust.
- 06Strategic CompetitionPower, standards, supply chains, and deterrence.