Understand economic power before it becomes consensus
Economic intelligence on how markets, institutions, technology, and capital shape power.
Selected research
Unwinding Trump's Tariffs
Six exhibits trace the tariff unwind through federal revenue, China’s surplus, trade flows, consumer prices, and capital goods imports.
Nvidia's Slow Burn Monopoly
Nvidia's $5 trillion valuation no longer turns on whether AI is real. It turns on how long the company can keep the rents.
Jackson Hole and the Conditions for Credible Discretion
Kevin Warsh has pulled the Federal Reserve back from forward guidance. His first Jackson Hole address must show how a more restrained communications regime will preserve a clear monetary-policy rule.
The Power Curve 2026 Outlook
The 2026 Outlook examines the concentration of productive capability, capital allocation, and strategic competition.
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Explore the Power Curve Index
Check each indicator’s source and reference period. The Index includes illustrative model previews.
| Indicator | Latest | Change | Data through | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US GDP Growth | +2.2% | down -0.6 ppvs. 2024 | 2025 | |
| US Government Effectiveness | 1.44 | up +0.02 ptsvs. 2022 | 2023 | |
| World Trade Intensity | 68.5% | up +11.8 ppvs. 2024 | 2025 | |
| US Political Stability | 0.14 | up +0.05 ptsvs. 2022 | 2023 |
Investigating economic power
- 01Advanced TechnologyCompute, chips, AI, and frontier capacity.
- 02Capital MarketsLiquidity, risk, allocation, and leverage.
- 03Cities and InfrastructureHousing, transport, energy, and innovation.
- 04Risk and ResilienceShocks, bottlenecks, redundancy, and exposure.
- 05State CapacityPermitting, procurement, delivery, and trust.
- 06Strategic CompetitionPower, standards, supply chains, and deterrence.