Understand economic power before it becomes consensus
Economic intelligence on how markets, institutions, technology, and capital shape power.
Selected work
All publications Selected research
MEMO · STRATEGIC COMPETITION
Equal Prices, Unequal Bills
OpenAI and Anthropic now charge the same list prices and very different amounts per task.
MEMO · STRATEGIC COMPETITION
Maryland's Unemployment Rate Is Falling for the Wrong Reason
Maryland's jobless rate fell to 4.1 percent while its labor force shrank by 32,093 and participation reached a 151-month low.
ESSAY · ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY
Dire Warning from AI Insider
What risk looks like from the perspective of someone who knows.
Featured report
The Power Curve 2026 Outlook
The 2026 Outlook examines the concentration of productive capability, capital allocation, and strategic competition.
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The IndexFeed last checked
Explore the Index Explore the Power Curve Index
Check each indicator’s source and reference period. The Index includes illustrative model previews.
Featured indicatorWorld Trade Intensity
68.5%up +11.8 ppvs. 2024
Source: World Bank WDI · data through 2025| Indicator | Latest | Change | Data through | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US GDP Growth | +2.2% | down -0.6 ppvs. 2024 | 2025 | |
| US Government Effectiveness | 1.44 | up +0.02 ptsvs. 2022 | 2023 | |
| World Trade Intensity | 68.5% | up +11.8 ppvs. 2024 | 2025 | |
| US Political Stability | 0.14 | up +0.05 ptsvs. 2022 | 2023 |
World Bank WDI · data through 2025Explore the full index
Research themes
View all themes Investigating economic power
- 01Advanced TechnologyCompute, chips, AI, and frontier capacity.
- 02Capital MarketsLiquidity, risk, allocation, and leverage.
- 03Cities and InfrastructureHousing, transport, energy, and innovation.
- 04Risk and ResilienceShocks, bottlenecks, redundancy, and exposure.
- 05State CapacityPermitting, procurement, delivery, and trust.
- 06Strategic CompetitionPower, standards, supply chains, and deterrence.